The cost of solar has decreased by more than 99% over the past 40 years.
The cost of solar has decreased by more than 99% over the past 40 years.
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The Solar Industry is still in the early development stage of the business cycle. Profit growth will happen eventually. There is a lot of room for product demand to improve, which should follow decreasing production costs. Think strategically. The shift will not happen over night. For every $US increase in the price of oil, alternatives like Solar become more attractive, especially for those of us driving EV’s.
stockcharts.com – TAN – SharpChart
The thing I never see people talk about is cost of solar PV installations include initial panel costs and amortised financing, usually over 10 years. But after that… You have essentially free power for easily 20 more years, if not decades more. PV installations from the 70s are still going strong, bought and paid for and making money. While future energy costs are difficult to predict unless you get some sweet guaranteed price indefinitely, it would be nice to see solar PV sold as an investment instrument.
Simon Waddington
That is the SolarCity business plan … install free and lease to homeowner at a below grid cost with a 6 or 7 year breakeven. Then the revenue stream becomes pure profit.
Mac Baird I don’t care for that “leasing it” part. It doesn’t mention who the county and state taxes will fall on. If it’s the private property owner , it will still be too expensive in conveyance to be within reach of the average consumer and by “average consumer” I’m not talking just about those in the West. New and supposedly more environmentally friendly energies should, imho, be conveyed to and in consideration of the poorest recipents, not the wealthiest. Otherwise it’s just more of the same.
It’s now just ten times as expensive as coal fired electrical generation.
Yoorcede Phormee
Dumb ass
Yoorcede Phormee prove it.
Yoorcede Phormee in case you need a place to start with your research futurism.com – Solar Power Finally Becomes the Cheapest Source for New Energy
St. Eve I’m sure sixty odd cents per W is a wholesale rate if you’re installing megawatts of panels. Off the shelf retail prices will no doubt be at least 2x to account for distribution costs and markups. However I was able to find panels at around $1.2/W from the retail DIY store Home Depot. On eBay or direct from China you can get $1/W not including shipping.
The following table presents the various production costs. Retail and distribution costs will be additive.
Pricing trends:
Polysilicon ($/kg): $15.10, 2.0% w/w, 12.7% YTD
156mm mono wafers ($/piece): $0.81, 0.0% w/w, -14% YTD
156mm multi wafers ($/piece): $0.62, -0.3% w/w, -27.3% YTD
c-Si, mono modules ($/watt): $0.65, 0.0% w/w, -9.7% YTD
c-Si, multi modules($/watt): $0.47, -1.0% w/w, -22.8% YTD
Thin film modules ($/watt): $0.38, -2.3% w/w, -35.7% YTD
Very much needed here in Africa, too many dark villages/towns and cities. ???
Thapelo Matlhaku
Too much light here, prevents viewing the stars.
Mac Baird that’s because people were too lazy to design lights to send all their light down where it’s needed. Think of all the energy we’re wasting illuminating the sky. Doh!
Thapelo Matlhaku it’s coming and someday you’ll have cheaper and cleaner power than Americans. Just like so many countries have faster and cheaper Internet than we do.
Simon Waddington name them all AND their population density please
Phoenix Chastaine population density is irrelevant. The speed of light is 300 million meters per second. It’s monopoly cable and telecoms providers that decide it isn’t profitable to provide Internet to these areas.
Simon Waddington
Perhaps population affluence and demand are the determining factors for internet provider viability. Profit potential attracts entrepreneurs.
Wasim Muklashy
What size solar electrical system do you have? How much did it cost?
Yoorcede Phormee At first I did not follow what that has to do with anything, but a quick glance at your profile immediately made me realize your ‘type’. But if you must know, it powers the whole house and Solar City installed it for free and we pay them directly at a rate that’s 10% below what the utility company was charging us before. Additionally, any electricity we don’t use gets fed back to the grid and the utility company pays us for it. Anything else I can help you with?
Wasim Muklashy
So, it’s subsidized and you don’t own it. What country are you in?
I would be grateful if my village has more street lights one day soon. It’s just too dark ?
Yup Yoorcede Phormee, and let me tell you, it’s fantastic. I’m milking the shit out of every government handout, subsidy, welfare check, and tax credit that I can get my hands on. We literally throw government handout tailgate parties and celebrate with champagne and caviar we buy with food stamps. It’s awesome. And the best part is? I’m an immigrant and you get to pay for all of it! God bless America.
Simon Waddington Im talking about distribution of the energy to houses Simon! Come on now, think about that. In that context my point makes total sense.
Energy is a utility in any form. The pragmatic issue of Supply, Demand, Logistics, and most importantly for the chimpanzees selling and distributing the energy to customers is price. There is no widescale infrastructure at state level. IOW, there’s a shit ton of existing wires, cables, poles, and pipes, (not to mention the millions * of customer *meters), that either must be used, if possible, to distribute nee captured energy, or it all has to come out! How will that be paid for? Who will pay for it? The costs are immense, so if solar cannot achieve what coal and nuclear and gas already do.
It’s extremely odd to me that people that push for and go on and on about renewable energy, refuse to consider the pragmatic implementation costs and engineering that must take place in order to implement the new energy. In fact I find, that people assume because you want to discuss these things that you are resistant two renewable energy. In my case nothing could be further from the truth. It’s great to get excited about new technologies, all of that is fun and interesting I agree. However, implementation is everything otherwise you just talking about technology.
Phoenix Chastaine Utilities get their revenue from the distribution of power regardless of the source (nuclear, hydro, coal, oil, gas, geothermal, wind, solar, whatever). They price their product to cover the production cost plus distribution infrastructure cost plus a reasonable profit. Many utilities have realized that the strategic cost of renewable energy is falling relative to non-renewable energy on a per watt basis. A solar panel, wind generator, hydro, geo, tidal, etc. plant produces power for 30+ years after a given up front production cost that is lower every year, whereas a fossil energy plant produces power with a continuous production cost associated with initial mining/drilling plus refining plus transportation that is higher every year. Nuclear power has a 20+ year breakeven due to extremely high production costs. The distribution infrastructure cost is the same for both forms of energy as far as the utility is concerned. The utility companies want to maximize the number of meters and have been shifting their production to strategically cheaper renewable sources. For example, my Florida Power and Light is now 20%+ renewable because they don’t want to see their customers continue to leave for strategically cheaper renewable power on their own. The industry realizes that cheap fossil energy will disappear in about 10 years when the reserve of cheap conventional oil and gas can no longer meet global demand on its own and is replaced by more unconventional (deep ocean, Arctic, tar sands and shale) oil and gas which is 5 to 7 times more expensive to produce.
Wasim Muklashy
I’m not being critical of you milking government subsidy. I’m saying solar is not an economically viable choice for a typical home owner unless all he operates is a light bulb.
Yoorcede Phormee If this was 1985, I might agree. But it’s not and I have two light bulbs. 3 in a good month.
Yoorcede Phormee Solar economics is relative to the user’s application, and needs to be viewed strategically. If PV is your only source of power, it is essential. If it is supplemental, what is the time required to breakeven on the initial investment cost, typically 7 years with traditional installations or immediately with the Solar City business model. The same concept applies to solar hot water as a supplement to fossil fuel. In the same way you heat your swimming pool, you can provide supplemental heat to a home, significantly reducing your heating bill. Water is a very effective storage and transfer medium for heat, which is why it continues to be used in heating buildings. The same concept applies to my 2012 Nissan Leaf EV which has provided me with 56,000+ miles of travel at a cost savings of about $1700 per year relative to a 30 mpg gasoline car. I continue to get 5.2 miles/KwH for $0.10 or 52 miles/$1. More than 20% of the power I receive from my utility (Florida Power & Light) is renewable, and that percentage is increasing every year because FPL recognizes that renewable energy is strategically cheaper to produce than fossil energy.